Dramatic World Change In Next 20 Years
Summary
Much quicker technology improvement, based on AI will change the world almost beyond recognition in the next 20 years. Humanoid robots will build themselves, cost $US0.10 per hour, and work 18 hour days. No strikes, no sick leave, no holidays. Existing workers must be upskilled and their future carefully considered.
Humanoid robots will initially take over mundane repetitive work and eventually be capable of doing all tasks of humans as they gain AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). They will be capable of any task, like us.
The consequences for humans are enormous. For instance, will our lives have meaning? We must remain in control. One solution, perhaps not palatable is to use neural implants making us more or as intelligent as robots or AGI.
The video below explains what will happen in more detail.
The Good News: Power of Regulation
The rise of AGI is inevitable, but the future is not predetermined. We, through governments, can shape this technology with outcomes that benefit humanity. Already governments are introducing legislation to ensure responsible AI and AGI development. We need to ensure this revolution leaves no one behind.
Dangers
Bad state actors or individual groups could use this technology to dominate the world. Free world governments must cooperatively ensure this doesn’t happen.
Huge Advantages
- Quantum Computing: This technology will solve complex problems in seconds that would take today’s supercomputers thousands of years. Quantum computing could lead to drug discovery, materials science, and artificial intelligence breakthroughs.
- Generative AI: This type of AI doesn’t just analyse data, it creates new content. From writing articles and code to designing products and composing music, generative AI will revolutionise creative industries and spark new forms of expression.
- Humanoid Robots: Robots will become increasingly capable, taking on tasks in manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and our homes. These robots will not only be more efficient but also more collaborative, working alongside humans to achieve common goals.
- Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs): Imagine controlling devices with your thoughts or having information uploaded directly to your brain. BCIs, like Elon Musk’s Neuralink, have the potential to revolutionise communication and restore lost functions for people with disabilities such as paralysis.
- Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering: Advances in gene editing tools like CRISPR-Cas9 will enable us to treat genetic diseases, develop more resilient crops, and potentially enhance human capabilities.
- Autonomous Vehicles and Drones: Self driving cars, trucks and eVTOLs will transform transportation, making it safer and more efficient. Drones will deliver packages, inspect infrastructure and provide medical assistance in remote areas.
- Energy and Storage: The shift towards clean energy will accelerate, with solar, wind and other renewable sources becoming more affordable and efficient. Advances in energy storage will enable us to use renewable energy more effectively. Nuclear Fusion development will accelerate.
- 3D Printing and Additive Manufacturing: This technology will revolutionise manufacturing, allowing us to create customised products on demand, from medical implants to spare parts for machinery. It is already used to construct buildings and infrastructure.
- The Metaverse: A virtual reality space where people can interact with each other and digital objects in a shared 3D environment. The metaverse has the potential to transform how we work, learn, socialise and experience entertainment. Apple’s Visual Pro is an example.
The Challenge of Adaptation
- The pace of technological change will be relentless, requiring individuals and societies to adapt quickly. This means embracing lifelong learning, fostering a culture of innovation, and proactively addressing potential disruptions to the workforce and economy.
- We must engage in discussions about ethical implications of these technologies, ensuring they are used for the betterment of humanity. We must also invest in education and workforce development to equip people with the skills needed to thrive in this new era.
- By harnessing the power of these transformative technologies while remaining mindful of their potential risks, we can build a future that is both prosperous and equitable, in fact, a nirvana. The challenges are significant, but so are the opportunities. The next 20 years will transform human history.
References
8 Responses
Interesting Campbell. One of the major issues is that GI could build on its own intelligence and beyond our ability to comprehend. Will we be able to turn off the switch? A minor example is the way computers competed against themseves playing games like chess GO etc zillions of times to get much better than humans. With GI the scope is greater. We become their pets. Some interesting books and films have discussed this seriously.
Ian
Thanks for your comment. As I suggested, humans must remain in control, even if we use neural implants (not an enticing thought) to make us as or more intelligent than AGI. Quantum computing could also help and hopefully it is humanly controllable. Alas, the future is beyond my feeble brain to predict. The implications of AGI are huge and as I said dramatically life changing.
Problems such as:
1. What will done about possible mass unemployment, larger than anything before?
2. Does the increased productivity mean basic incomes for all and what will humans do with their lives?
3. Humans need purpose and meaning in their lives.
4. Or will this revolution create a different type of working life through re education?
5. All need to be answered, depending on what occurs.
Hopefully AI will replace the CFMEU
Don
Good to hear from you. Sounds like a plan! It will certainly outwit them in time!
I have no doubt that AI or AGI will achieve all you perceive, and probably much more. However, it still scares me enormously, especially as I don’t really understand how it works and have no apparent hope of replicating any of it. Why can’t we return to the abacus days?
Graham
AGI is scary as it will become much more capable than humans. I don’t know how to use an abacus so don’t want to go there. Hopefully humans will remain in control. See my answer to Ian.
My view is no use worrying about things we have little chance of controlling. Easier said than done!!
Again, a neat and realistic overview of the massive technological changes already underway.
The greatest challenges will not be devising and implementing these technologies, but in how we cope intelligently with the necessary social and political adjustments they will require.
For example, a universal wage, encouraging life-long education, redefining ‘work’, etc., might be priority issues.
Interesting times ahead, indeed!
Tony
Thanks as always for your constructive comments.
Your suggestions are absolutely right. The way humans handle AGI is paramount, but the other problem is the increasing intelligence of AGI, surpassing that of humans.
We must stay in charge and that Will be difficult when AGI is smarter than us. I suggested a solution in the blog but hopefully by the time AGI occurs, we may have a better one.