Changing World Energy

Introduction

Growing acceptance by voters of data from climate change experts is pushing most first world governments into action. Also, last year saw a huge shift by industry, some realising court actions will make them act and/or shareholders will desert them, see Events … below.

Others see the profitability and new job opportunities. They need to, as 81% of global energy is still based on fossil fuels!

So, this blog explores this change, as the main source of CO2 emissions is energy. A previous blog dealt with hydrogen. Animal farming and land use (24%) are also big contributors.

Events Forcing Change

• A Dutch court last Wednesday ordered Shell to cut carbon emissions from its oil and gas by 45% by 2030.
• A tiny activist investor group won two places on ExxonMobil’s board 
• Chevron’s investors voted in favour of forcing it to cut its carbon emissions
• Two other oil companies, ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, suffered investor revolts over climate inaction recently

Australia Moving Fast

AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator), an independent organisation owned by government and industry, says the country’s grid is rapidly approaching 100 per cent renewable penetration. It sets out a system and market to handle such situations, needed now, not in a few decades. But it is frustrated by a tepid response from the federal government. Energy minister Angus Taylor has described it as “lines to nowhere”. See RenewEconomy. The good news is lower energy prices.

While Australia’s internal emissions represent only 2% and exports 3.6% of world emissions, as a first world country, an example should be set. The graph below shows we may be nearing it, at least internally.

Sources of Emissions

To see emissions per capita for every country, click here.

Renewables

Nuclear fusion (see prior blog) may be the ultimate limitless energy source, but for now, renewables are so important. Often overlooked is the zero fuel cost for renewables, hence the name.

Solar

Solar is now the cheapest energy in history. The major cost is installation, 60%, panels 40%.

In 1977 the price of solar panels was US$77 per watt. Now it is US$0.06 per watt, a decrease of 1,300% and this cost will keep decreasing.

Wind

Wind at around US$0.02 per watt, is a lower cost than solar, but installation and ongoing maintenance are higher.

For every doubling of capacity, the price declines almost a quarter. Power from offshore wind will decline in price in coming years, due to larger wind turbine sizes and consistent sea winds. See weforum.org

Storage

Storage of renewable energy is essential to cater for its intermittency. Critics of renewables point out the parlous state of battery technology now. This ignores the enormous work being done by researchers into battery and other storage technologies. Work is also ongoing into battery recycling, becoming less important as their lifecycle increases. The following explores this work and what it promises. History shows where there are urgent needs, humans have always found a way. There is also huge money in it!

• Batteries built at grid scale, being used in the US, Australia and Germany
• Europe and China lead installation of pumped hydro.
• Thermal energy storage, predicted to triple by 2030
• Mechanical energy storage using motion or gravity

Batteries

Because batteries are necessary for most EVs (Electric Vehicles), their use for storage will benefit from the intense ongoing research. Batteries are ideal for grid storage as they can be placed where needed and their output is instantly available.

Lithium-ion, or Li-ion, is the most prolific battery technology in use today. There are advantages and disadvantages.

• Advantages: High energy density, small and light, low self discharge, no memory effect, long service life, low maintenance, no priming
• Disadvantages: Expensive, aging effect, safety concerns from fire, sensitivity to high temperature, protection required, deep discharge problems

New Battery Technology

There are 16 new battery technologies so far being developed and 3 are listed here. To see the remainder, click here

• NAWA Technologies uses a carbon electrode, boosting battery power 10 times, increasing energy storage by 3 and the lifecycle 5 times. The range for EVs is around 1000km, with charging times of 5 minutes to get to 80 per cent. Could be in production by 2023.
• Monash University has a lithium-sulphur battery. This technology has lower manufacturing costs, with potential to power EVs for 1000km, or smartphones for 5 days.
• University of Queensland rechargeable graphene aluminium ion batteries. Their life is up to 3 times current leading lithium-ion batteries, with higher power density charging up to 70 times faster.

Just In

Stanford University just completed a study of converting 143 nations, representing 99.7% of emissions to carbon zero. This would:

• Reduce energy demand 57%, decrease social costs 91% compared to Business As Usual (BAU).
• Keep warming below 1.5 degrees and reduce air pollution that now causes more than 9 Mn premature deaths every year (see Harvard study, way more than motor vehicle deaths). The cost is $US8 Bn a day.
• Cost $6.8 Tn/year compared to $17.7 Tn/year for BAU. It costs 61% less than BAU
• Health and climate cost of BAU energy is $76 Tn/year. Renewable energy cost is $72.8 Tn total over 29 years, (until 2050). See Report

References

• AEMO
• EPA
• US Depart of Energy
• World Economic Forum
• Pocket Lint
• Statista