The World Is Not Falling Apart
Summary
Absorbing the news on TV and the newspapers makes most people despondent about the world’s future, but bad news sells and we are flooded with it instantaneously. There was an encouraging opinion piece in the SMH on Wednesday, the 8th of January by Matt Wade, entitled “It’s OK, the world is not going to hell”. See References below.
In the last 20 years the figures for people living in poverty, children dying before five years old, life expectancy, education, etc. have improved enormously. This applies to billions of people.
There’s no denying the increase in conflicts is a major concern, involving interracial and religious hatred and of course the Russia Ukraine war.
More detail is shown below.
This video below is funny, impressive and convincing. It is worth watching.
Life Expectancy
Global life expectancy is at an all time high of 73.3 years despite the prevalence of deadly conflict. That’s almost seven years longer than in 2000. Australian Bureau of Statistics in November 2024 shows Australia has the world’s 4th longest life expectancy at 83.2 years
Infant Deaths
The world has never been better able to care for its newborns – the number of children dying before the age of 5 has halved since 2000 and continues to fall.
World Poverty
The World Bank says global poverty reduction “has resumed” after the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2000, 30 per cent of the world’s population survived on less than $US2.15 ($A3.43) per person per day in 2011 prices (the global measure of extreme poverty) but that fell to an all time low of 8.5% last year. The overall number living in extreme poverty has also fallen sharply – data published by ourworldindata.org shows that in 1990 almost 2 billion people were living on less than $US2.15 a day, but by last year that number was down to 693 million.
Medical Improvements
Medical advances are saving and enhancing millions of our lives, impacting both physical and mental health on a profound scale. This will increase dramatically with the use of AI.
Education
The global literacy rate is at a record high of 87% up from 67% in 1979, reflecting extensive efforts in education reform and accessibility. The long standing literacy gap between young men and women is now negligible.
Electricity
Households with access to electricity is at a record 91% allowing widespread internet use and greater economic participation, which facilitates innovation and entrepreneurship in developing countries.
Climate Change
CO2 emissions have plateaued on a per capita basis highlighting the effectiveness of recent sustainability initiatives and renewable energy projects.
While faster progress to reduce greenhouse gases is needed, communities worldwide are increasingly engaged in environmental preservation and conservation.
However, already we have major floods, fires, droughts, excessive and constant wind, etc., because there is now too much CO2 in the atmosphere. It seems necessary to take CO2 out of the air to pre industrial levels, but this is a massive task and very expensive. A future blog!
What the Public Think
Opinion polls show most people in countries such as Australia believe the world is much more poverty stricken, sickly and desperate than it is, which shows the gap between perception and reality.
A large global survey by the Swedish Foundation, ‘Gap Minder’ asked what proportion of the world lived in extreme poverty with 3 possible answers: about 10%, 30%, or 50%. The correct answer is about 10% but only 1 in 10 respondents got it right!
References
6 Responses
Why is it that bad news sells? Is that a perception of the media or is it reality ? If so why?Apparently social media is more influential in as much as it appears the young in particular feel the need to excel in suffering with mental health issues. The Woke generation have only encouraged this. Much of this has been fostered by academics who appear to have little idea of reality. Common sense would show just how fortunate we are. Sadly it’s a rare commodity.
Well put John
Apparently bad news sells because of human’s ingrained fight or flight mentality from the hunter gatherer days. We are always concerned about impending threats. Whereas good news is pleasing but doesn’t get the attention of bad news.
Hi Campbell
Thanks for your latest blog and as usual interesting. The good news is that over time I believe we go forward, but sometimes two steps forward one back.
I’m interested in Quantum Computing, which I believe will or is starting to gain traction. A number of the ‘Big Boy’ tech Co’s are now making some noises. Some time back you produced an interesting Quantum Blog. Just wondering if you still have it on hand could you kindly send it through to me again.
Hope all is going well with you and wishing you a healthy & safe 2025.
Cheers
Foulsh
John
Thanks for your interest as always. Here is the reference to the original blog https://seniorsfuturetech.com/quantum-computing-simply-explained/
There is some comment around that Super AI will make quantum computing irrelevant but maybe not. Anyway I will probably write my next blog about it.
I was under the impression that crime in general, murders, and violent deaths (including wars insurrections etc) have been declining over decades as the levels of poverty have improved (and other factors obviously). The figure for war deaths globally may have increased somewhat in the last few years with the wars in Ukraine, middle east and Africa. I couldnt find recent figures in a brief search.
David
It appears that crime murders and violent deaths have been decreasing in countries as they become educated and more affluent. Gemini provides the following answer:
“It’s difficult to provide a precise table with figures for crime, murders, and violent deaths spanning 100 or even 50 years globally. Here’s why:
Data Collection Inconsistency:
Early Periods: Reliable, consistent data collection on crime wasn’t standardized across regions for much of the past.
Definitions Vary: Definitions of “crime,” “murder,” and “violent death” have evolved over time, making historical comparisons challenging.
Reporting Bias: Historical reporting of crime was often incomplete or influenced by social and political factors.
Wars and Conflict:
Significant Fluctuation: Global events like wars (World Wars, regional conflicts) drastically skew violent death figures, making long-term trends less meaningful.
Data Limitations: Accurate data on war-related deaths can be difficult to obtain, especially in historical conflicts.
General Trends (with significant caveats):
Crime:
Long-term: Globally, crime rates have likely fluctuated significantly throughout history, influenced by factors like economic conditions, social unrest, and technological advancements.
Recent Decades: In many developed countries, overall crime rates have shown a general decline in recent decades.
Murders:
Varied Trends: Murder rates vary drastically by region and over time. Some periods have seen significant increases (e.g., the late 20th century in some Western countries), while others have witnessed declines.
Violent Deaths (including war):
Major Declines: The frequency of large-scale, highly destructive wars has decreased significantly in recent decades compared to the first half of the 20th century.
Continued Conflict: However, localized conflicts, terrorism, and other forms of violence continue to cause significant numbers of deaths globally.
Where to Find Data (with limitations):
United Nations: Organizations like the UN may have some global data on crime and violence, though it may not be as comprehensive or detailed for historical periods.
Academic Research: Scholars specializing in criminology, history, and political science may have conducted research on these topics, often with more nuanced analyses of historical trends.”
Gemini then suggested viewing https://dataunodc.un.org/dp-intentional-homicide-victims
Summarising, it seems logical that increased wealth and education are big factors in reducing crime and homicides.