ASI This Decade – A Tsunami of Change
Summary
ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) is predicted to occur before 2030.
(AI is a general term for all types, viz., AGI, ASI and the Singularity)
- Definition: ASI refers to artificial intelligence that surpasses human intelligence in every aspect, including problem solving, learning and decision making.
- Capabilities: ASI could understand, learn and apply knowledge across a vast range of domains, far exceeding human capabilities.
- Potential: ASI could revolutionise fields like medicine, science and engineering, leading to breakthroughs that are currently unimaginable.
Are we ready for ASI? The ramifications for the world are enormous and the general public is mainly oblivious!
The video below deals mainly with AGI which is Artificial General Intelligence, similar to current human intelligence, but then talks about ASI.
AI is Limited at Present
Many critics of AI talk about its limitations today. A common criticism is that it makes up answers but that will and is being eliminated as it self learns. It does this at a much faster rate than we do because of the following.
- Massive Data Processing: AI can analyse and learn from vast amounts of data in a fraction of the time it would take a human. It is virtually immediate.
- Parallel Processing: AI can perform multiple calculations and tasks simultaneously, significantly increasing processing speed.
- Continuous Learning: AI systems can learn and adapt continuously, without the need for sleep or breaks.
ASI is a specific type of AI with superhuman intelligence.
Then Comes The Singularity
In 1958 John von Neumann first used the term “Singularity”. He described developments in informatics, nanotechnology and biology that would lead to the invention of artificial general intelligence (AGI). It will think and act like humans and quickly be a lot smarter, leading to ASI, then the Singularity!
The Singularity is a broader concept that encompasses the idea of an intelligence explosion and a fundamental shift in human civilisation.
The Singularity
- Definition: The Singularity is a hypothetical future time, predicted by Ray Kurtzweil to occur in 2045 when technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilisation.
- Trigger: The Singularity is often associated with the development of ASI, predicted to improve itself, leading to a rapid intelligence explosion.
- Consequences: The Singularity could lead to radical changes in society, the economy and even the nature of humanity itself. Some speculate it could lead to a future where humans and machines merge, or where machines become the dominant intelligence on Earth.
In Summary:
- ASI is a specific type of AI with superhuman intelligence.
- The Singularity is a broader concept that encompasses the idea of an intelligence explosion and a fundamental shift in human civilization.
Potential Benefits of the Singularity
It could revolutionise healthcare, education and transportation, eliminate food scarcity, making life easier and more efficient for everyone. It could also solve the world’s most pressing problems, such as climate change and poverty.
The Singularity could have a huge impact on the world. It could lead to momentous prosperity and progress or it may create a dystopian future. The outcome will depend on how humans manage it.
Potential Risks of the Singularity
It could become uncontrollable, leading to unintended consequences. Bad state actors could use it to develop autonomous weapons and cut essential services such as electricity networks. It could use humanoid robots to displace humans from the workforce, leading to widespread unemployment and social unrest.
However, scientists in this field think this is unlikely by a ratio of over 5 to 1, going on to 9 to 1 as it is studied in detail.
I use AI to provide data for these blogs and have just changed the theme of this website. Many problems were solved by Gemini, Google’s AI system, often by injecting CSS code it supplied.
Additional Considerations
- The role of consciousness: Some argue that the Singularity will not occur until ASI develops consciousness. If this is the case, then it may be further away than we think.
- The impact on social and political structures: The Singularity could profoundly impact social and political structures. Humans need to ensure that ASI is used in a way that is fair and equitable.
- The need for international cooperation: The Singularity is a global challenge that requires international cooperation. Nations will hopefully work together to develop ethical guidelines and safety standards for AGI. After all, it is a 2 way street.
As always, please provide your views in the Comments section below. They are important to keep blogs relevant and of interest.
References
4 Responses
Thank you for these thoughtful and topical posts.
My reading suggests that continuous learning is not yet in the mainstream. The latest Claude, Gemini and ChatGPT versions still require months of off line training which becomes out of date almost immediately on some topics – e.g. election results. Continuous learning will require a major architectural redesign using knowledge graphs which will bring new problems of performance, capacity and the cost of data acquisition. On the bright side these KGs will be accurate, logical and explainable.
As an investor and researcher in the AGI space I can agree with a 2030 estimate for human level intelligence but not for ASI on all functions. A calculator is super intelligent in a narrow dimension but Generative AI cannot yet be trusted with autonomous disease diagnosis and prescriptions or with ordering your groceries and managing your bank account without close human supervision. Same for self driving cars and humanoid robots. Steve Wozniak famously challenged any robot to walk into a strange house and make a cup of coffee. That will require multiple generations of development that will take us well beyond 2030.
Having said all that I believe AGI will surpass humans on most functions in the 2030s and usher in profound changes to society and business. Pure ASI is subject to limitations in physical compute capacity, communications bandwidth and algorithmic limits. I don’t expect a singularity moment as foreseen by I.J. Good, Verner Vinge and Ray Kurzweil. The search space for new concepts is so large that inductive and abductive reasoning performance will be limited to near human level orders of magnitude. The nature of creative reasoning will keep our feet on the ground. It’s a grind of guess and test and most conjectures fail testing.
David
Your thoughts from the coal face are most welcome by me. I report on what I read and anyone predicting the future has an unenviable task. I was gobsmacked when I viewed Julia McCoy’s video. However if as you say it is slower than predicted, that is probably a good thing as the general public appear to have no idea what’s coming.
A concise snapshot of the remarkable changes already unfolding right before our eyes!
While the technological advances are stunning, we are reminded that these are still in the early days. Folks, we ain’t seen nothing yet!
For all that, what most concerns me is how few understand the implications of this rising tsunami of change, much less how to prepare for it. Those who best understand what is unfurling try to tell us, yet most responses are shaped by ancient delusions, aggressive tribalism and narrow selfishness.
Technological change must be matched by equally radical and urgent remodelling of the old economic, social and political systems. This is the only way we can embrace the new reality in a way that is harmonious, fair and sustainable.
Otherwise…..
Tony
Your thoughtful and pertinent comments appreciated as always. Unfortunately there will always be some bias and self interest by whoever comments on what is happening in this field. However I agree with you that governments appear to be relatively inactive in preparing for this tsunami of change. In the introductory stages of Chatbots, they were very quick in the main to introduce legislation outlawing bad actors with hash penalties. But I have heard no discussion about these latest possible developments.
Look at David Doust’s comments below as he feels the tsunami will take longer than what I have read and predicted in this blog. David is the Chairman & Cofounder of LearnBot Pty Ltd (https://learnbot.ai/), an Australian company, so I take notice of what he says.