Electric Vehicles (EVs)

                                                                                                
Tesla 3 Interior

Electric Vehicles : Roll on autonomous cars – I always wanted a chauffeur who doesn’t get sick, works 24/7 and doesn’t talk back. Also no more Seniors’ driving tests!

World Uptake of Battery Fuelled EVs

There are 2 types of EVs, battery and fuel cell driven (another blog). While most car companies including Tesla are developing battery driven, Toyota is concentrating on fuel cells which use hydrogen as the fuel to drive electric motors.

China leads the way with EVs 45% of all new sales in 2019. A totalitarian state can make and enforce change quickly! Their EV sales are soon to hit nearly 5.5 million units. As only China can do, they are rolling out initiatives to wean the country off ICVs completely.

Norway remains the global leader with EVs 46% of total sales, They will ban ICVs after 2025

Globally, electric cars are gaining momentum. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently announced UK will ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035

In Australia, while sales of electric cars tripled in 2019, that figure only amounted to 6718 vehicles compared to over one million sales of Internal Combustion Vehicles (ICVs – petrol cars). In other parts, especially Europe it is much quicker.

Most other major countries have plans to phase out ICVs.

Advantages of EVs

Running costs

EVs are more economical to run. Charging from the main power grid, a fully charged car will cost around a third the price of an ICV to run.

Moving parts

There are roughly 20 moving parts in an EV compared to over 2,000 in ICVs, so maintenance costs are cheaper and required less often for EVs compared to ICVs. No exhaust systems, starter motors, fuel injection systems, gears or radiators means less maintenance and fewer service costs. For this reason, as an example, IKEA will transition 100% of their home delivery fleet to EVs by 2030.

Batteries

Batteries are expensive at present and may need replacing during the lifetime of the vehicle. The biggest problem for many people in buying EVs is recharging time and doubt about discharge time or ‘range anxiety’ It’s often the reason they decide not to purchase an EV – at least for now.

Some Green Shoots

• Lithium metal batteries, in which the graphite material in the anode is swapped out for pure lithium metal, could be a game changer when it comes to energy storage, potentially offering far greater capacity and an ability to charge much faster.
• Tesla has filed a patent for a battery it believes will last for 1.61 million kilometres of driving, so it will last more than the life of the car.
• Our own Monash Uni scientists say the Li Sulphur battery they have patented could power a smart phone for five days or an electric vehicle for more than 1,000 km on a single charge.
• The Chinese company BrighSun claims their Lithium-Sulphur batteries would give an EV a range of close to 2,000 km
• There are many more web articles about batteries and it is almost a subject on its own, e.g., see https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/environment/a-glass-battery-that-keeps-getting-better
• Improvement in lithium-ion battery technology has been particularly impressive: battery costs have fallen 90 per cent over the past decade, and are forecast to drop a further 47% between now and 2024.5 see: https://mega.online/en/articles/innovation-in-
  electric-vehicles

Cost of EVs

Because of batteries, EVs are dearer than ICVs at present. Tesla has a new battery which is half the size of existing batteries, so the range is doubled, presumably for the same price. New developments are reducing price of batteries, so this and the lower number of parts required for EVs aided by volume manufacture will decrease the cost markedly lower than ICVs. Time is needed.

Charging

For urban driving, Instead of searching for a petrol station with the cheapest prices, charge at home at cheaper and predictable costs. It takes only a few seconds and you wake up with a “full tank” every morning.

Tesla

Most auto makers are reluctantly getting into EVs.  Tesla make far less cars but its market value is now greater than Toyota, General Motors, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler combined. Investors obviously see EVs as the future.

Tella’s Difference

Tesla designed the software and user experience for the car and built the hardware around it. They are the first company to enable wireless software downloads of the operating system directly to the car. Like a smart phone on wheels. The automotive industry normally requires drivers to bring their car to a dealer to update software to fix a bug. Not so Tesla. They also recently went purely online for purchases, dismissing all their US dealers. Disruptive and brutal!

Tesla developed lithium ion battery technology better than anyone else, but that could change – see Batteries above. Due to its unique approach, Tesla has dramatically reduced the use of cobalt in its batteries and even eliminated it at its China factory. This reduces the overall cost of the car and increases the range. Tesla’s AI is good, as cars are loaded with sensors that collect data when the cars are on Autopilot (self driving mode). Because of this, Tesla has already collected about 4Bn miles of data. By year’s end it will have more than 5Bn miles, making Tesla’s the world’s most advanced self driving software.

Latest Musk Move

Elon Musk has just indicated he may license his autonomous software to other EV manufacturers, most of whom are good at making cars but light on software. The millions of miles experience Tesla has built up makes Tesla way ahead and this move would be like Google’s Android is to smart phones. That has made Google at 85%, well ahead of Apple which has only about 13% of the market.

The future – Autonomous EVs

The huge advance will be fully autonomous cars (no steering wheel, accelerator or brake controls) that experts say will save US$1.3 trillion per year in USA. I will deal with that in another blog, but when that is available, owners can “opt in” to a self driving taxi service – a cheaper Uber. While they are working and not using their car, it will go out and earn money for them. It will be back in time for it to drive them home. The car will essentially pay for itself. In fact most people won’t own a car. It will be cheaper to whistle one up when needed, meaning all those cars parked on the street and in car parks will largely disappear.

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