Summary
Climate Change has been debated for decades. It has long been known by experts and now accepted by the majority of the public, that the science is settled. Most first world countries are taking action. Technology is and has been developed to clean up the atmosphere from greenhouse gas emissions shown in the chart below. The transition is painful in terms of industry change. However, all industrial revolutions have gone through this and succeeded in terms of better outcomes, living standards and re employment. There is huge money and jobs in clean technology.
The danger is that conservative governments and old industries with vested interests may be and are getting in the way. The August 2021 IPCC report didn’t project an optimistic picture. Market forces will hopefully prevail but old high emission industries could become stranded assets and go bankrupt unless they change. This happened to Kodak in the 1990s. Kodak invented the digital camera, but didn’t anticipate its exponential adoption! Time is running out and the consequences of inaction could be catastrophic, particularly if tipping points are reached.
Solar costs have reduced 90% since first developed and 80% since 2010. Even with battery backup, it is much cheaper than coal fired energy. By 2035 the cost of renewables will be negligible and unlike coal and gas, the ongoing fuel is free!
The World has the technology now to limit climate change to 1.5 °C. Here is what a well credentialed think tank, RethinkX says as a lead into their August 21, 2021 report.
“How Humanity Can Choose to Reduce Emissions 90% by 2035 through the Disruption of Energy, Transportation, and Food with Existing Technologies”
Moonshots aren’t needed but will occur and improve decarbonisation.
Video Explanation: If you would rather watch than read, this video explains much of the blog content
Emission Types and % of Total
Energy 35%
Solar and wind, particularly offshore, stored by batteries appear to be the technologies that will increasingly replace coal and gas. Storage, mainly by Lithium Ion batteries which have dominated are great at short term supply. However, a new battery system, such as Iron Air may take over as backup.
Iron Air is 1/10 the cost of Lithium Ion and can store energy for days, not hours. When the battery provides power, thousands of tiny iron pellets rust when exposed to the air. When the system is charged, the rust reverts to pure iron. Because of its weight, this type of battery is not suitable for EVs (Electric Vehicles) but is ideal for in situ renewable energy storage on land. There are almost countless other systems being developed, one example being GridScale.
Other forms of energy such as nuclear fusion are making rapid strides and may replace or be used in conjunction with renewables, but action is needed with the technology available now.
Industry 21%
The majority of emissions come from the manufacture of steel, cement and fertiliser. Pilot plants are evolving to substitute coal and gas furnaces with electricity or hydrogen. From the Australian Financial Review: “Dr Forrest said Fortescue, which ships almost all its iron ore to customers in China, would start building Australia’s first green steel pilot plant this year and a commercial-scale plant within the next few years.”
Transport 14%
While there are teething problems with the final stage of autonomous EVs, this is an exponential technology and by 2035, the majority of transport will be by this method. Far fewer cars, much cheaper to hire than own. More space on streets, few parked cars and car parks. The debate is ongoing whether hydrogen or electricity will power aviation and sea transport.
Agriculture & Land Use 24%
Animal farming has been traditional for centuries, but the majority of emissions comes from cattle belching methane (no, not by farting)! Methane is 84 times stronger than CO2 as a greenhouse gas but is only effective for about a decade. This can be reduced by modifying feed, even ‘potty training’ calves for reduction of urine pollution, which is happening in New Zealand.
There is a burgeoning industry synthetically producing meat and also plant alternatives tasting like meat. Costs are too high but are reducing as volume and technology improve. Rather than not being able to feed the world, Singularity University says we will have an abundance! See: Abundance
Direct Air Capture: DAC
DAC is a technology that captures CO2 from the atmosphere and either stores it underground or repurposes it for products and fuel. This is essential to reduce carbon already in the atmosphere to pre industrial levels. It is costly at present but cheaper DAC is on the way see: DAC costs
References
Campbell , very informative , interesting and encouraging , But why does hardly anyone see a smaller world population as part of the solution ????? I think when you were born just a few years ago , there were less than 2 billion people in the world !
Thanks, Richard.
Yes, there are too many people in the world and there are varying estimates of when this enormous increase will plateau. Education is slowing the birthrate in some first world countries to less than replacement. However while the high population increases emissions, this means it is vital we clean up the atmosphere to allow them to live. 9 million people a year die unnecessarily from atmospheric pollution, 9 times more than motor vehicle accidents. That alone is a reason to fix it. Nothing to do with climate change.
Thanks Campbell.
EVs are unlikely to operate in heavy transport, trains, agricultural machinery, ships and mining. The focus on cars by Governments is astounding and lazy
Regards
Don
Don, good to hear from you.
I agree there is no easy solution at present for commercial transport yet, but inevitably new heavy duty battery types with longer ranges will be developed, suitable for heavy vehicles. Cars are easier, so developed first. See:
https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air
Watch this space!
Campbell
Hi Campbell
Well done and excuse the pun, but it’s a hot topic.
As you have highlighted we are going through another industrial revolution, which we hope will make the world a better place.
Governments should provide the platform not the solution. Taxes, subsidies and big sticks are costly and do not create long term solutions. The outcomes have to be effective and commercially viable. As you have so precisely presented the dollars in are now in the game via technology innovation and this will drive a transfer to cleaner and hopefully cheaper energy. “Necessity is the mother of invention”. The timing is the question and trying to put dates on it is good politics, but achieves little. This industrial revolution now has a roll on and with financial benefits it will probably come to pass a lot quicker than we anticipate.
Appreciate your informative blogs.
John
Thanks, John
Yes, I think and hope the revolution will take over naturally because of economics, in spite of reluctant governments. Let’s watch.